It’s beating pre-pandemic predictions.
1 Americans might be reluctant to believe it, but on paper, the U.S. economy is doing pretty well. So well, in fact, that we’re performing better than forecasts made even before the pandemic began. 2 The nation’s employers added another 199,000 jobs in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. This means that overall employment is now 2 million jobs higher than was expected by now in forecasts made way back in January 2020 by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. 3 The job market isn’t the only front on which we have bested forecasts made before the pandemic. The overall size of the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, is larger than it was expected to be around now. The International Monetary Fund says that U.S. gross domestic product is higher today, in inflation-adjusted terms, than it had expected at the beginning of 2020. The IMF ran these calculations for countries around the world, and found the United States was an outlier in beating the organization’s pre-covid forecasts. 4 So why did well-regarded professional forecasters underestimate the strength of the economy? And how is it that jobs and GDP are doing better than they expected, even as inflation has been unmistakably worse? 5 To some extent, all these things are related. Forecasters obviously did not anticipate the pandemic. They also did not anticipate the unprecedentedly enormous government response to the coronavirus. When the public health crisis hit and disemployed millions of American workers, policymakers implemented unusually generous fiscal and monetary stimulus. 6 Such measures helped get people back to work sooner, and avoided the long, painful effort back to normal that had followed the Great Recession. Thus, faster job growth. They also massively amplified consumer demand, at a time when the productive capacity of the economy (i.e., companies’ ability to make and deliver the things their customers want) couldn’t keep up. Employers faced all kinds of shortages — of products, materials, workers — and consumers anxious to buy stuff raised the prices of whatever inventory companies actually had available. Thus, faster price growth. 7 If you had asked me back in January 2020 how Americans might feel about an economy with an “extra” 2 million jobs, unemployment less than 4 percent, and inflation just over 3 percent, I probably would have guessed the public would be pretty content. However people are still furious about the extra price growth they’ve already endured to date, and unimpressed by all that extra job growth. Maybe it’s human nature for people to view better jobs or pay as things they’ve earned, while a painful price increase is something inflicted upon them — even if both are, to some extent, two sides of the same coin.
🔗 Texto adaptado de:
🔗 Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/08/jobs-report-economy-beats-pandemicpredictions/. Retrieved on: Dec. 12, 2023.
In Text I, in paragraph 4, one of the questions is “why did well-regarded professional forecasters underestimate the strength of the economy?”. The expression well-regarded professional forecasters can be rewritten, with no change in meaning, as
respected and experienced forecasters
enthusiastic and unskilled forecasters
kind and pretentious forecasters
strict and amateur forecasters
laid back and intense forecasters
Questão 09 • Gabarito: (A)
A banca destaca uma expressão lexical curta: “well-regarded professional” e pede que ela seja reescrita “with no change in meaning”.
Portanto, a operação cognitiva é essencialmente lexical: o candidato precisa reconhecer uma formulação semanticamente equivalente à expressão original, sem precisar reconstruir o argumento global do texto.
professional → experienced / qualified
↓
well-regarded professional forecasters
=
respected and experienced forecasters
A alternativa preserva a caracterização essencial dos forecasters: são profissionais respeitados e experientes/qualificados.
Porque a banca não solicita a interpretação de uma proposição completa nem a compreensão de um argumento.
O alvo é uma expressão lexical. A operação é: expressão → equivalente semântico. Isso caracteriza diretamente o tema 03. Synonyms in Context.
❤️ Contextual Synonymy
O candidato deve reconhecer a equivalência semântica das expressões dentro do contexto, sem alterar a caracterização atribuída aos profissionais mencionados pelo autor.
✅ CORRETA
well-regarded equivale a respected, enquanto professional, no contexto da caracterização dos especialistas, é adequadamente reformulado como experienced. A expressão mantém a ideia de profissionais respeitados e qualificados.
❌ 11. Distorção de Sentido — Distortion of Meaning
Enthusiastic significa entusiasmado, enquanto unskilled significa sem habilidade ou inexperiente. Nenhuma dessas ideias corresponde a well-regarded professional.
❌ 11. Distorção de Sentido — Distortion of Meaning
Kind caracteriza alguém como gentil ou bondoso, enquanto pretentious significa pretensioso. A expressão original não apresenta nenhuma dessas características.
❌ 11. Distorção de Sentido — Distortion of Meaning
Strict significa rigoroso, enquanto amateur significa amador. O segundo termo, especialmente, contradiz diretamente a ideia de professional.
❌ 11. Distorção de Sentido — Distortion of Meaning
Laid back significa descontraído ou relaxado, enquanto intense significa intenso. A alternativa introduz características comportamentais que não estão presentes na expressão original.
Esta questão exige atenção a uma diferença fundamental: sinônimo contextual não significa tradução palavra por palavra.
A banca permite pequenas mudanças de formulação desde que a caracterização semântica essencial seja preservada. Assim: well-regarded → respected e professional → experienced mantêm o sentido pretendido no contexto.
well-regarded professional
↓
REFORMULAÇÃO
respected and experienced
↓
MESMO SENTIDO
Não é necessário reconstruir a tese econômica do artigo. Basta verificar qual alternativa preserva a caracterização semântica dos forecasters.
thematic: Lexical Context
theme: 03. Synonyms in Context
contentTopic: 14. Economy, Inflation & Fiscal Policy
subtheme: Economy, Inflation, Fiscal Policy, Public Spending
Peça Operativa Principal: ❤️ Contextual Synonymy
(B) → 11. Distorção de Sentido
(C) → 11. Distorção de Sentido
(D) → 11. Distorção de Sentido
(E) → 11. Distorção de Sentido
A chave da questão está em perceber que well-regarded não significa simplesmente “bom”, mas respeitado; e professional, no contexto, remete à ideia de alguém experiente ou qualificado. A alternativa (A) preserva exatamente essa caracterização, enquanto as demais introduzem atributos completamente diferentes.