World Energy Outlook 2017
The resurgence in oil and gas production from the United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables and growing electrification are changing the face of the global energy system and upending traditional [05] ways of meeting energy demand, according to the World Energy Outlook 2017. A cleaner and more diversified energy mix in China is another major driver of this transformation.
Over the next 25 years, the world’s growing [10] energy needs are met first by renewables and natural gas, as fast-declining costs turn solar power into the cheapest source of new electricity generation. Global energy demand is 30% higher by 2040 — but still half as much as it would have been without efficiency [15] improvements. The boom years for coal are over — in the absence of large-scale carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) — and rising oil demand slows down but is not reversed before 2040 even as electric-car sales rise steeply.
[20] WEO-2017, the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s flagship publication, finds that over the next two decades the global energy system is being reshaped by four major forces: the United States is set to become the undisputed global oil and gas [25] leader; renewables are being deployed rapidly thanks to falling costs; the share of electricity in the energy mix is growing; and China’s new economic strategy takes it on a cleaner growth mode, with implications for global energy markets.
[30] Solar PV is set to lead capacity additions, pushed by deployment in China and India, meanwhile in the European Union, wind becomes the leading source of electricity soon after 2030.
“Solar is forging ahead in global power markets [35] as it becomes the cheapest source of electricity generation in many places, including China and India,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director. “Electric vehicles (EVs) are in the fast lane as a result of government support and declining battery costs but [40] it is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth for trucks, petrochemicals, shipping and aviation keep pushing demand higher. The US becomes the undisputed leader for oil and gas production for decades, which represents a major upheaval for [45] international market dynamics.”
These themes — as well as the future role of oil and gas in the energy mix, how clean-energy technologies are deploying, and the need for more investment in CCUS — were among the key topics [50] discussed by the world’s energy leaders at the IEA’s 2017 Ministerial Meeting in Paris last week.
This year, WEO-2017 includes a special focus on China, where economic and energy policy changes underway will have a profound impact on the [55] country’s energy mix, and continue to shape global trends. A new phase in the country’s development results in an economy that is less reliant on heavy industry and coal.
At the same time, a strong emphasis on cleaner [60] energy technologies, in large part to address poor air quality, is catapulting China to a position as a world leader in wind, solar, nuclear and electric vehicles and the source of more than a quarter of projected growth in natural gas consumption. As demand growth in [65] China slows, other countries continue to push overall global demand higher – with India accounting for almost one-third of global growth to 2040.
The shale oil and gas revolution in the United States continues thanks to the remarkable ability of [70] producers to unlock new resources in a cost-effective way. By the mid-2020s, the United States is projected to become the world’s largest LNG exporter and a net oil exporter by the end of that decade.
This is having a major impact on oil and gas [75] markets, challenging incumbent suppliers and provoking a major reorientation of global trade flows, with consumers in Asia accounting for more than 70% of global oil and gas imports by 2040. LNG from the United States is also accelerating a major [80] structural shift towards a more flexible and globalized gas market.
WEO-2017 finds it is too early to write the obituary of oil. Global oil demand continues to grow to 2040, although at a steadily decreasing pace – while [85] fuel efficiency and rising electrification bring a peak in oil used for passenger cars, even with a doubling of the car fleet to two billion. But other sectors – namely petrochemicals, trucks, aviation, and shipping – drive up oil demand to 105 million barrels a day by 2040.
[90] While carbon emissions have flattened in recent years, the report finds that global energy-related CO2 emissions increase slightly by 2040, but at a slower pace than in last year’s projections. Still, this is far from enough to avoid severe impacts of climate change.
🔗 Texto adaptado de:
🔗 Available at: https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/november/a-world-in-transformation-world-energyoutlook-2017.html. Retrieved on: 14 Nov. 2017.
All the boldfaced verb phrases express a future action, EXCEPT in
“The resurgence in oil and gas production from the United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables and growing electrification are changing the face of the global energy system” (lines 1-4)
“the world’s growing energy needs are met first by renewables and natural gas as fast-declining costs turn solar power into the cheapest source of new electricity generation” (lines 9-12)
“WEO-2017 (…) finds that over the next two decades the global energy system is being reshaped by four major forces” (lines 20-23)
“meanwhile in the European Union, wind becomes the leading source of electricity soon after 2030” (lines 31-33)
“the United States is projected to become the world’s largest LNG exporter and a net oil exporter by the end of that decade.” (lines 71-73)
Cesgranrio • Petrobras • Nível Superior
Questão 16 • Gabarito: (A)
All the boldfaced verb phrases express a future action, EXCEPT in:
(A) “The resurgence in oil and gas production from the United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables and growing electrification are changing the face of the global energy system” (lines 1-4)
(B) “the world’s growing energy needs are met first by renewables and natural gas as fast-declining costs turn solar power into the cheapest source of new electricity generation” (lines 9-12)
(C) “WEO-2017 (…) finds that over the next two decades the global energy system is being reshaped by four major forces” (lines 20-23)
(D) “meanwhile in the European Union, wind becomes the leading source of electricity soon after 2030” (lines 31-33)
(E) “the United States is projected to become the world’s largest LNG exporter and a net oil exporter by the end of that decade.” (lines 71-73)
Para resolver este tipo de item de exceção temporal, é mandatório cruzar a forma estrutural do verbo com os marcadores de tempo explícitos no segmento:
Em itens da Cesgranrio focados em valores temporais (temporal reference matching), use a técnica da **Análise do Entorno Adverbial**. Em inglês, a forma morfológica (a escrita da gramática) não determina sozinha o tempo da ação. Antes de marcar uma alternativa como presente ou futuro, varra as linhas imediatamente vizinhas em busca de datas, prazos ou preposições de limite temporal como by, after, over the next. Se a morfologia for de presente, mas o entorno for de amanhã, o valor do item é de futuro. Elimine-o e busque o fato atual puro.
Competência avaliada: 21. Verb Tenses.
A locução verbal “are changing” está flexionada no Present Continuous para indicar um processo em pleno andamento e desenvolvimento no momento presente. Como o comando do item exige a marcação da única alternativa que não expressa uma ação futura, este fragmento responde perfeitamente ao enunciado.
Distrator 19 — Confusão Cronológica.
A Engine da banca induz o candidato a ler a locução na voz passiva “are met” (Simple Present) apenas sob a ótica morfológica imediata. Contudo, ela desconsidera o marco temporal global de projeção do relatório, que atrela o atendimento dessas demandas energéticas mundiais aos próximos 25 anos, conferindo-lhe valor de futuro.
Distrator 19 — Confusão Cronológica.
A alternativa tenta prender o leitor na estrutura verbal do presente contínuo passivo “is being reshaped”. O erro capital repousa em ignorar a baliza temporal expressa “over the next two decades” (ao longo das próximas duas décadas), que joga a consumação e os desdobramentos dessa reconfiguração do sistema energético para o futuro.
Distrator 19 — Confusão Cronológica.
Aqui ocorre o clássico uso do Simple Present para expressar horários ou eventos futuros agendados/previstos (Timetables/Schedules). Embora o verbo se apresente como “becomes”, o adjunto adverbial explícito de tempo “soon after 2030” (logo após 2030) destrói qualquer possibilidade de a ação pertencer ao plano cronológico presente.
Distrator 19 — Confusão Cronológica.
A expressão “is projected to become” indica de forma literal e inescapável uma projeção estimativa. Além de a própria semântica do verbo apontar para frente, o final do trecho traz o delimitador temporal “by the end of that decade” (ao final daquela década), consolidando o caráter estritamente futuro da asserção.
Isolamento de Indicadores de Projeção (E): Insere construções de voz passiva com verbos de estimativa futura (projected, expected, predicted) para testar se o estudante se confunde com o verbo auxiliar no presente.
Sinalizador Adverbial de Âncora (Entorno): Elementos como over the next, soon after e by the end atuam como os verdadeiros determinadores do tempo da ação na frase.
Fato Presente Inequívoco (A): Apresenta uma transformação em tempo real, contemporânea e sem amarras adverbiais com o amanhã, atendendo perfeitamente ao comando "EXCEPT".
thematic: Grammar in Context
theme: 21. Verb Tenses
Peça Operativa Principal: Future Time Reference Analysis / Adverbial Environment Tracking / Temporal Exception Identification
SILO 3 — Contextual
contentTopic: 08. Energy, Recycling & Sustainability
subtheme: Future Time Reference and Present Forms
O item avalia a capacidade leitora do candidato de discernir o tempo real da ação a partir do cruzamento de estruturas verbais e sintagmas adverbiais, enquadrado no tema 21. Verb Tenses do SILO 2. A correta resolução exige a identificação do item de exceção ("EXCEPT"), localizando a única proposição cujo aspecto temporal está preso ao momento presente da narrativa econômica. Os distratores ativados pela Engine operam com base na Confusão Cronológica: as alternativas B, C, D e E utilizam-se de verbos morfologicamente estruturados no presente, mas cujos contextos e balizadores temporais circundantes projetam as ações integralmente para cenários futuros.